The Pack Splits

The two islands of Fiji have split the pack of five as they race in leg five of the Volvo Ocean Race towards Rio de Janeiro. 

Telefónica Blue (Bouwe Bekking/NED) and PUMA (Ken Read/USA) opted to dodge reefs and atolls and sail between the two Polynesian islands, while the rest of the fleet went to the east.  Luckily, for PUMA and Telefónica Blue, the job was completed during daylight hours, which made avoiding uncharted hazards less of a problem, and gave the two crews the chance to plan their next family holidays to these exotic islands.  However, it did involve constant tacking and stacking, almost hourly, which was time consuming and costly. 

“Going through the middle did not look ideal by any means, but it was the only option we could see that didn’t involve realising a certain major loss,” said Tom Addis, Telefónica Blue’s navigator earlier this morning.  “Lighter breeze, breeze blowing up the narrow channels, rather than across, and the increased amount of manoeuvring through the reefs were all downsides, but there was a glimmer of hope in the form of reduced distance to sail,” he explained. 

The glimmer was made even brighter when PUMA decided to join Telefónica Blue on their island-hopping spree, which made the team on the blue boat less vulnerable about being out on an edge on their own. 

The teams now wait anxiously to see the outcome of their decision, measured against the progress of rest of the fleet.  PUMA has a lateral separation of precisely 100 nm from Ericsson 4 (Torben Grael/BRA) in the east, and is 1088 from the northeast tip of New Zealand. 

Ericsson 3 (Magus Olsson/SWE) and Ericsson 4 finally decided on the eastern option, along with Green Dragon (Ian Walker/GBR) who had committed to the east a week out. 

Today at 1300 GMT, PUMA leads from Ericsson 4, 16 nm behind.  Telefónica Blue is in third place with Ericsson 3 just 10 miles astern on the distance to leader board.  Average boatspeed for the last three hours puts Ericsson 3 at the top of the chart with 15.8 knots, while Telefónica Blue is only able to achieve 11.  Even her nearest rival, PUMA, is able to average 13.5 knots, while the Dragons are trucking along at around 14.3.

Matthew Sanders, meteorologist for the race, looks at the weather around Fiji and gives a long-range forecast:   “The fleet is provided with weather models four times per day, but, lately, few model cycles have shown the same solution and this is what caused the major quandary of whether to go east or west of Fiji,” he says.

Sanders explains that one solution argued for a path west of Fiji into a lane of fresh northerly wind from Vanuatu to the scoring gate, caused by low pressure strengthening near New Zealand.  The other predominant solution was to head east into lighter but possibly steadier easterlies.  The pack is now split with three boats to the east and two to the west. 

“Going forward,” says Sanders, “Everyone will continue to face inconsistent wind conditions despite their route around Fiji.”  He predicts several days of slow headway, which means that the favourable winds associated with the strong low pressure, which passes near New Zealand, are likely pass south of everyone. Instead, several days of wind near 10 knots or less is expected. Occasionally, the wind speeds may build to the mid teens, but a prolonged period of stronger wind is not anticipated.

Sanders also says that those further east will tend to sail closer to the wind,  but wider wind angles are expected for those further west.   The longer-term forecast provides the feet with an opportunity to encounter stronger winds as they approach the scoring gate at 36 degrees south. A centre of high pressure is forecast to track east of New Zealand, while low pressure forms southeast of New Caledonia.  This generates fresh wind as the fleet approaches the scoring gate, but the situation could also provide some challenges since the breeze could veer for a time directly into the path of the fleet.

These upcoming conditions certainly mean few, if any, will relish the navigator’s job.

Leg Five Day 15: 1300 GMT Volvo Ocean Race Positions