Green Dragon is likely to the huge recipient of an early Christmas present.  At least, that’s what PUMA’s Ken Read thinks and race meteorologist Jennifer Lilly agrees.

There is action ahead in the shape of two complicated and ugly low pressure systems situated in the north, just where the Dragons languish, about 400 nm behind the leaders. 

Jennifer Lilly says that the first low will deepen quickly to the north of the fleet, moving southeast down the west coast of Chile over the weekend, while the second  will be much slower to develop, tracking slowly east south of 60S. 

Cape Horn is situated at 56 degrees south, more than 300 nm south of the second ice gate, which Green Dragon has just passed through.  With about 1500 miles and at least three days before Cape Horn, these are two key weather systems, which are likely to play into the fleet’s strategy for the next segment of this leg.

Ken Read says that Green Dragon will be the first to jump on this system.  “They will come ripping up to us, and, as we see it, start the leg all over again with Ericsson 4.”

Green Dragon’s skipper, Ian Walker, says that the next four or five days are going to be a real test for the navigators and sailors alike.  The low pressure will cut right across the path of the Dragon and bring with it winds in excess of 50 knots in places.

“This gives an opportunity to sail over the top of the low pressure as Ericsson 3 did, east of New Zealand.  The question is:  do you really want to put yourself in the path of these winds,” asks Ian Walker. 

“To not do so could leave you in light air or headwinds and losing hundreds of miles,” he says.  Walker and navigator Tom Addis are monitoring the development of the low pressure closely.  “We don’t have to decide anything just yet,” Walker says.   

As for PUMA’s tactics, Ken Read explained the devil in the detail this morning when he said:

“If we continued south we would be blocked out of the Horn by a huge area of light wind.  Essentially for ourselves and Ericsson 4, who are positioned within 27 miles of each other, our quickest route by far, is to head northeast and punch through quite a strong low to get into the westerlies on the back of it.”

The fleet has been at sea now for exactly one month, leaving Qingdao in China on 14 February.  Throughout the month at sea, a milestone for all, but something of a personal record for many, the progress of the fleet is watched carefully, night and day, by a team of women, known as Duty Officers, situated in front of a bank of sophisticated software in the Operations Room at Race HQ in the UK. 

Each Duty Officer works alone on a watch system of 12 hours on and 24 hours off throughout the period that the fleet is at sea.  They are the first point of contact with the fleet, particularly if anything should go wrong.  Theirs is a lonely, but highly responsible task and one that is much appreciated by the fleet. 

The fleet reports to them regularly, but their long night watches are brightened especially by notes such the one Telefónica Blue’s skipper Bouwe Bekking wrote last night:

“Hi there.   All well onboard the blue boat. You have a good watch...must be boring sometimes to be by yourself in this big building.  But, just to let you know, we are happy that somebody keeps an eye on us all the time, we appreciate tremendously the job you are doing for us.  Cheers, Bouwe.”

As the four boats ahead of him prepare for a high-speed ride to Cape Horn, Bekking and his blue boat are still trapped by high pressure and have approximately 220 nm to go before they can finally bear away and hoist the spinnaker again. 

Navigator Tom Addis is constantly bombarded by questions about timings and distances by the crew.  “If I slip up and give a distance that is not fully consistent with the one I gave earlier they are on to me in an instant, like a pack of seagulls.”

For the crews, it does seem as if the end is in sight, although perhaps this is wishful thinking as there are still over 3,500 nm to cover until the finish in Rio.  “It’s just a question of time now until we are warm, dry, and clean and free once more,” says Ericsson 4’s MCM, Guy Salter.

Leg Five Day 28: 1300 GMT Volvo Ocean Race Positions